As Putin Invades Ukraine, Uzbekistan Feels Vindication and Fear
Vladimir Putin has begun his invasion of Ukraine, sending troops across the border to “defend” the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, which Russia has now recognized as independent states. The unfolding crisis in Ukraine offers the latest evidence of Putin’s irredentist obsessions and the ways in which those obsessions threaten the political and economic integrity of Russia’s neighbours.
Last week, Uzbekistan marked Ukraine’s “Day of Unity,” a Ukrainian national holiday. The façade of the historic Hotel Uzbekistan, overlooking Tashkent’s main square, was lit in the colors of the Ukrainian flag. Beyond shared affinities, Uzbekistan and Ukraine are both confronted by the challenge that is Putin. For Uzbekistan, the events unfolding in Ukraine validate a decades-long effort to hedge relations with Russia. But they also raise the spectre that Putin will no longer tolerate divided loyalties among the former Soviet republics.
As Maximillian Hess has written, Uzbek president Shavkat Mirziyoyev has sought to rebuild relations with Russia since coming to power in 2016. Mirziyoyev‘s predecessor, Islam Karimov, who led Uzbekistan from 1989 until his death in 2016, believed that “Moscow’s vision for Central Asia was to keep it as a colonial backwater.” In both security and economic spheres, Karimov challenged Russia’s regional dominance. Uzbekistan was an on-again, off-again member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance of post-Soviet countries. Uzbekistan served as a staging ground for NATO operations in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2005. Karimov also delayed joining the customs union that preceded the founding of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEAU), Putin’s grand vision for an economic bloc.
Mirziyoyev’s ascendence to the presidency required horse-trading. Developing more constructive ties with Putin was an important aspect of his attempts to consolidate his authority after a power struggle with Rustam Inoyatov, the chief of Uzbekistan’s intelligence services. Inoyatov was eventually sacked in January 2018. In October of that year, Putin visited Uzbekistan bringing with him a large delegation of Russian companies. The visit saw the signing of contracts totalling $9 billion, including provisional agreements for the construction of a nuclear plant that would help Uzbekistan free its natural gas production for export.
But Mirziyoyev has also sought to limit Russian political and economic influence in Uzbekistan by pursuing a multilateral foreign policy and economic liberalisation. While Uzbekistan is expected to join the EEAU, Mirziyoyev has slow-rolled accession, meanwhile pursuing formalised ties with the European Union, including preferential trade terms under the EU’s Generalized Scheme of Preferences. Uzbek officials have continued to engage with counterparts in the United States, building on a state visit by Mirziyoyev to Washington in May 2018. Since the outset of his term, Mirziyoyev has also sought to develop better relations with neighbours. At the heart of this strategy is a series of “consultative meetings” among Central Asian leaders that exclude the presence of either Russia or China, the two states that typically wield convening power.
In this way, Uzbekistan has hedged in its relations with Russia. While developing more constructive bilateral relations, it has also ensured that parallel developments in its foreign policy and economic agenda serve to circumscribe Russian influence. Recent events have shown the prudence of such an approach.
In January, as protests accelerated into a full-blown political crisis in Kazakhstan, the Uzbek government reacted cautiously. But Putin’s deployment to Kazakhstan of a “peacekeeping” mission comprised of CSTO forces raised concerns over Russia’s respect for the sovereignty of its neighbours. Likely commenting on the circumspection of Uzbek leaders, Belarussian president Alexander Lukashenko issued a veiled threat to Uzbekistan, suggesting that the country’s failure to join CSTO would leave it vulnerable to “terrorists.”
For many Uzbek political commentators, the threat underscored the risks of posed by the increasingly irredentist Russia. Xushnudbek Xudoyberdiyev, deputy director of state news agency UzA and a prominent blogger, criticized Lukashenko, calling the CSTO a “trojan horse.” In a lengthy interview published two days after the threat, political analysts Farhod Tolipov and Kamoliddin Rabbimov questioned the wisdom of joining the EEAU.
Similar dynamics can be seen in the response to the Russian aggression against Ukraine. While Uzbek officials have yet to issue statements on the crisis, Uzbek editors and bloggers have been quick to label Putin a “savage,” a “criminal,” and a “bandit,” who has “lost his mind” and “spit on international law.” Political commentators have questioned the slow response to the new crisis from the Uzbek Ministry of Foreign Affairs and have also wondered about the risk posed by deepening economic ties with Russia.
Uzbekistan does not share a border with Russia—perhaps a silver lining of being one of just two double landlocked countries in the world. But the Ukraine crisis does have a bearing on Uzbekistan’s place in the political and economic order in West Asia. As Putin takes a more confrontational approach with the West, he may begin to see Mirziyoyev’s hedging of its relations with Russia as an afront, putting Uzbek elites with strong ties to Russia in a difficult position.
Moreover, if Western countries place Russia under significant sanctions as is expected, the consequences for the Uzbek economy could be profound. Russia hosts 3 million migrant workers from Uzbekistan, whose remittances shore Uzbek household consumption. As the rouble comes under pressure and as the economy falters, these workers, already struggling due to Russia’s general economic malaise, will see their employment prospects diminish and the value of their earnings erode. The devaluation of the rouble would also hit Uzbekistan’s economic elite who maintain assets in Russian banks. Moreover, financial sanctions placed on those banks could see a significant portion of Uzbek wealth effectively frozen.
Over the last five years, Uzbekistan has been one of the few former Soviet republics to enjoy political stability and economic prosperity. That alone sets Uzbekistan apart. But the country’s political and economic agenda is also unique given the ways in which it has sought to modulate Russian influence. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine vindicates that agenda, but it will also stoke fear. Among Putin’s complaints about Ukraine is that its leadership “preferred to act in such a way that in relations with Russia they had all the rights and advantages, but did not bear any obligations.” One can imagine a similar charge being made against Uzbekistan.
Photo: Kremlin.ru
