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All tagged May 12
◢ President Trump has violated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and withdrawn from a landmark arms control agreement that enjoyed broad international support. Crucially, he did so more decisively than many expected. It is this decisiveness which may offer a sliver lining for Iran and Europe, who will find it easier to coordinate a robust response in the face of such a definitive action by Trump.
◢ European leaders have been assiduous in lobbying Washington on the nuclear deal. But Europe must step up its diplomacy to ensure it does not lose Tehran in the process and should further make a strong case to the Iranian government and public as to why the nuclear deal can continue to serve Iran’s security and economic interest even without the US.
◢ With the United States looking set to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, the question now becomes how that withdrawal will take place. The European Union and Iran will face complex decisions about legal and diplomatic responses. Even though U.S. policy will be come more clear in the aftermath of May 12, the overall uncertainty facing businesses is likely set to increase.
◢ The forthcoming visits to Washington by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel come at a time of great importance for the Iran nuclear deal, regional security, and transatlantic relations. European policymakers are considering credible ways to signal that the EU is willing to take action if confronted with U.S. withdrawal from the deal, but a significant resolve will be needed.
◢ During confirmation hearings yesterday, Secretary of State nominee Mike Pompeo sought to ensure the members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee of his deep commitment to diplomacy, even in the case of Iran. But committee members were well-prepared, challenging Pompeo on his record of hawkish statements. To defend himself, Pompeo was forced to defend the JCPOA as he struggled to stick to the administration's illogical talking points.
