The Arab moment has passed. Competition between non-Arab powers—Turkey, Iran, and Israel—will shape the region’s future.
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All tagged Rouhani
The Arab moment has passed. Competition between non-Arab powers—Turkey, Iran, and Israel—will shape the region’s future.
◢ The prepared remarks of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani delivered at the United Nations General Assembly on September 25, 2019. They are published here in full in the interest of providing fuller insight into Iran’s intended message on the potential for diplomacy with the United States.
◢ Ostensibly, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s visit to Iraq was meant to deepen economic ties between the two neighbors, historically divided by political and sectarian enmities as much as they are connected by geography. Only one Iraqi leader could have kept Rouhani at arm’s length: Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, But he didn’t. The audience he gave the Iranian president says as much about Sistani’s own political adventurism as it does about Iraq’s subservience to Iran.
◢ What does Zarif's averted resignation mean for Iranian diplomacy? With the erosion of a unipolar world Iran has the chance to shift its foreign policy, whilst continuing to comply with the JCPOA and maintain broad diplomatic engagement.
◢ It took just under an hour for staff at Israel’s Government Press Office to delete a tweet that suggested that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had finally decided to wage war on Iran. The conflict Iran faces today is neither a hot war nor a cold war. It is a quantum war—a superimposition of two states of conflict. Put another way, depending on when you observe the facts, Iran is both at war and it is not.
◢ President Rouhani’s budget proposal for the upcoming Iranian year will see the government run a deficit amounting to about 10 percent of GDP or 60 percent of the state’s general budget, excluding oil revenues and withdrawals from the National Development Fund. Rather than increase tax collection to ease budget gaps, the Rouhani administration plans to tap Iran’s nascent debt markets to cover its public spending requirements.
◢ Next week, President Hassan Rouhani will submit a budget proposal for the forthcoming Persian year (covering March 2019-2020). Currently, the Rouhani administration has few options as it seeks to avoid a budget deficit. Yet the political tradeoffs required when devising a budget under sanctions may prove more difficult to manage than the economic challenges.
◢ Iran has finally learned how to use the Joint Commission of the nuclear deal to tackle its economic challenges. Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif got what he needed from the ministerial meeting. Two months following Trump’s abrogation of the nuclear deal, the remaining parties to the agreement proved able to present a consensus position on the need to protect Iran’s economic interests in direct contravention of the declared US policy. On practical implementation, bilateral exchanges are the preferred route forward.
◢ European leaders have been assiduous in lobbying Washington on the nuclear deal. But Europe must step up its diplomacy to ensure it does not lose Tehran in the process and should further make a strong case to the Iranian government and public as to why the nuclear deal can continue to serve Iran’s security and economic interest even without the US.
◢ Morteza Lotfi, the newly appointed head of SHASTA has recently announced a new effort for SHASTA to divest from a large portion of its portfolio, offering a second chance at the privatizations pursued a decade ago.
◢ But political barriers and a dearth of capital, particularly from foreign investors, risks rendering SHASTA's plan dead on arrival as Iran seeks to liberalize without crucial liquidity.
◢ To win foreign investment, Iran's needs to boost development expenditures. But expansionary fiscal policy will require a new source of revenue, as oil sales remain stagnant and tax rises remain politically risky.
◢ A sovereign debt sale, long discussed by Iranian officials, is the fundamental way Iran can find the revenues to self-fund growth. The Rouhani administration must focus on making its bond offering a reality.
◢ A resounding election victory has renewed Rouhani's popular mandate, but following President Trump's speech in Riyadh, the prospects for improved US-Iran ties remain remote.
◢ But by taking the high road, Iran can still make progress in its international relations, especially if it aims to forge deeper ties with Europe.
