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All tagged exports
In the first two weeks of December, Iranian government officials and business leaders participated in bilateral economic summits with counterparts from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan—the highest-level economic exchanges with these countries in several years. Iran is expanding its “neighborhood policy” to Central Asia as it seeks to grow its non-oil exports.
◢ Iran’s oil exports are likely to remain limited in 2019, with significant negative impact on Iran’s economy. Last month, the Trump administration reimposed sanctions on Iran’s energy sector as part of its ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against. But it nevertheless sought to prevent an unhelpful spike in oil prices ahead of the midterm elections. As a result the United States issued eight waivers to importers of Iranian oil:.
◢ With just two weeks until Trump reimposes secondary sanctions on Iran, administration officials are under increasing pressure to prove that the returning sanctions will not adversely impact humanitarian trade. Looking to US Census Bureau export data, a clear pattern emerges—the export of humanitarian goods like food and medicine remains significantly lower than average monthly values registered during the Obama years.
◢ Iran is resorting to “Houdini tricks” to sustain oil exports as US sanctions loom and new data suggests the magic might be working. While S&P Global Platts has reported Iran’s September exports at about 1.7 million bpd, marking an 11 percent decline from August, data from TankerTrackers.com, puts the export volume at just over 2 million bpd. The divergence in the datasets represents not merely 300,000 bpd, but also the difference between two narratives about the state of Iran’s exports in the face of returning US sanctions.
◢ Renewable energy has been one of the brightest sectors in the Iranian economy, achieving 70 percent growth in the last Iranian year according to official data. But this encouraging growth is now in doubt. The Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear deal has brought economic uncertainty for local investors and made foreign direct investment increasingly difficult. While there are steps the government can take to reassure local and foreign investors, as with other sectors of Iran’s economy, the withdrawal of European investors from Iran’s solar industry may mean that “Chinese money turns out to be the only option.”
◢ The president’s recent statement that OPEC may have something to do with the president’s own decision to create a crisis with Iran. While attention is duly paid to how much Americans have to pay at the pump, a more subtle and complicated story will soon play out with respect to Iran and the reapplication of US sanctions ordered by Trump on May 8, 2018. In fact, unless oil prices are contained, the primary result of the president’s action may be to ensure that Iran profits from the oil market risks that sanctions have created.
