asdasdasdasdasdasdasdasdasdasd
All tagged snapback
INSTEX alone cannot save the JCPOA, the future of which essentially depends on US-Iranian relations. INSTEX can nevertheless help maintain the nuclear agreement until, or even after, diplomatic solutions are found.
After a humiliating defeat at the U.N. Security Council, Washington will seek snapback sanctions to sabotage what’s left of the nuclear deal. Britain, France, and Germany can still keep it alive until after the U.S. election.
◢ On 8 May 2018, U.S. President Trump announced that the United States “will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal” and that the United States “will be instituting the highest level of economic sanctions”. At the same time, U.S. authorities announced that U.S. sanctions would be re-instated, at the latest by 4 November 2018. What does this mean for companies who have ties to Iran or who do business in Iran?
◢ President Trump has violated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and withdrawn from a landmark arms control agreement that enjoyed broad international support. Crucially, he did so more decisively than many expected. It is this decisiveness which may offer a sliver lining for Iran and Europe, who will find it easier to coordinate a robust response in the face of such a definitive action by Trump.
◢ With the May 12 deadline for the issuing of key sanctions waivers as part of the Iran nuclear deal fast approaching, the legal impact of the collapse of the 2015 agreement ought to be considered. Regardless of how Iran responds to a change in U.S. policy, the possible withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA will have a legal impact on its parties. Any possible change in the partnership or the provisions of the agreement will be reflected within the domain of international law.
◢ In the last week, European business leaders and policymakers have grown more vocal about the possibility that the European Union would employ blocking regulations to protect European businesses from the reach of US secondary sanctions on Iran.
◢ Despite limits to their legal effectiveness, blocking regulations can serve as part of the suite of political, legal, and commercial measures employed by European governments to protect their businesses in Iran.
◢ In a major interview given to French newspaper Le Monde, Total CEO Patrick Pouyanné was asked about the “American threat” to the company’s “important gas project” in Iran.
◢ Pouyanné’s forthright response marks perhaps the first time that a major European executive has publicly called for a diplomatic intervention to protect commercial interests in Iran. He points to the 1990s blocking statutes and sanctions waivers as a potential tool in the current environment.
◢ In a series of tweets published on Tuesday, Total's press office pushed back on reports that the company is rethinking its Iran strategy in light of pressure from the United States.
◢ The tweets emphasize that Total CEO Patrick Pouyanné sees no political barriers to the South Pars gas deal, and is simply waiting to see whether following Congressional action legal conditions will allow the deal to move forward.
◢ Later today, President Trump will decertify Iran's compliance with the JCPOA on national security grounds. However, early reporting based on background briefings provided to European officials makes clear that administration does not intend to walk away from the Iran Deal.
◢ Instead, Trump is pushing the issue of Iran policy to Congress, recommending new actions to counteract Iran, but not going so far as to recommend the full "snapback" of sanctions.
◢ A new survey by Bourse & Bazaar and IranPoll finds that business leaders believe Trump's rhetoric has slowed the pace of trade and investment by multinational companies in Iran.
◢ However, the results come at a time when the underlying commercial momentum seems strong. This suggests that Trump's words are having an impact not on those most directly working with Iran, but on the stakeholders on whom they rely.
