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All in Policy
◢ Post-sanctions trade and investment reporting has focused on three major countries: Germany, France, and Italy.
◢ But other European countries bring opportunities that should not be overlooked. A push to Iran by Poland's Economic Minister Janusz Piechociński reminds us that the story of Iran-Europe economic ties importantly extends to smaller economies as well.
◢ The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action— a document of comprised of 159 pages, negotiated over 23 months—represents a triumph of diplomacy.
◢ Sanctions relief will be operationally challenging. Will this relief lead to investment in the Iranian banks themselves?
◢ The policy community in the US and Europe is very fearful that sanctions relief will provide Iran a dangerous windfall that it can use to expand its interventions in the region.
◢ But these concerns fail to recognize that Iran’s post-sanctions windfall will be domestically driven, will generate private investment, and will transform Iran’s political economy for the better.
◢ British businesses are now receiving advice to explore Iran opportunities —albeit in accordance with standing sanctions regulations — in order to prepare for a Iran's reentry into the global economy.
◢ With the door having been opened, British companies risk losing a key business advantage to their competitors in other Western states such as France and Germany if they do not act quickly.
◢ Most experts focus on growing antagonism between Iran and its Arab neighbors as a risk to regional prosperity.
◢ However, Iran’s large consumer-driven economy and some early success stories suggest that many GCC companies are actually very well positioned to transfer their knowhow to the Iranian marketplace.
◢ As politicians and analysts consider the wisdom of offering Iran sanctions relief in exchange for restrictions on the country’s nuclear program, a key stakeholder group remains unaccounted for in the debate – the private sector.
◢ Private sector leaders can play three vital roles to help bring a brighter economic and political future to Iran— interlocutors, stewards, and creators.
◢ The global energy industry continues to find greater value in efficiency and clean technology, with a rapidly growing reliance on renewable energy. But Iran lags behind.
◢ Now that Iran prepares to once again open doors to the international business community, the time is right for renewables to have a greater role in the country’s energy mix.
◢ Banks dominate Iran's financial system, largely because capital markets are small and underdeveloped.
◢ Companies have relied on loans to access capital, but over-leveraging and poor lending practices have left banks in a precarious position.
◢ There are approximately 400,000 disabled veterans in Iran, who sustained their injuries during the Iran-Iraq War.
◢ Government agencies like the Social Welfare Organization struggle to meet their needs. Public-Private Partnerships ought to be developed to help address healthcare provision for this important population.
◢ A prospective détente between Iran and the West is dependent not only on the normalization of political ties but also on the realignment of economic ties. It is a matter of political economy.
◢ In order to envision the future role of Iran’s private sector, it helps to look to the past and the historical role of the bazaar, once the center of Iranian political economy.
◢ The JCPOA agreement should be heralded, but a complicated legacy of sanctions will remain.
◢ Years of vague justifications for sanctions mean that it will take time to rebuild the confidence of the business community in the intentions and abilities of regulators.
◢ The new year holiday has Iranians hoping for a brighter future and more prosperous household.
◢ At the same time, the nuclear negotiations underway in Lausanne are the source of great hope, but also trepidation for Iran's bankers.
◢ In most countries, central bankers wield immense influence over the economy through their monetary policy.
◢ The Central Bank of Iran has struggled to secure the power and independence of its foreign equivalents, hindering economic planning and growth.
