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All in Policy

High Stakes for Iran in Upcoming FATF Meeting

Jun 21

Jun 21 High Stakes for Iran in Upcoming FATF Meeting

Matthew Spivack

◢ A few days ahead of an international meeting in which Iran’s efforts to improve anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing (AML/CFT) standards will be reviewed, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to pour cold water on the reform process. Yet, it is premature to assume that Iran’s consultations with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) are suddenly over after two years of close coordination. As the FATF’s plenary meeting approaches, the stakes are high for Iran, which is seeking another extension for implementation of its action plan.

Over-Compliance on Iran Sanctions Can Lead to Discrimination

Jun 14

Jun 14 Over-Compliance on Iran Sanctions Can Lead to Discrimination

◢ Ireland’s Workplace Relations Commission has fined an unnamed bank EUR 20,000 for discrimination against an Iranian couple. The ruling points to a growing case precedent in Europe on acts of sanctions over-compliance which lead to discrimination of Iranian persons or individuals and businesses who maintain financial links to Iran.

Global Academic, Cultural Leaders Declare ‘European Imperative’ to Save Iran Deal

May 21

May 21 Global Academic, Cultural Leaders Declare ‘European Imperative’ to Save Iran Deal

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

◢ In a new open letter, over 150 global academic and cultural leaders have called upon the European Union to “discharge its international obligations” and ensure that “Iran and its people enjoy the full economic and political dividends” of the nuclear deal, despite President Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the agreement earlier this month.

Cañete to Discuss Vital Central Banking Solution on Iran Visit

May 18

May 18 Cañete to Discuss Vital Central Banking Solution on Iran Visit

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

◢ Europe’s Commissioner for Climate Action and Energy, Miguel Arias Cañete is set to travel to Tehran this weekend. Cañete’s visit will include discussions on possible new payment mechanisms designed to allow Europe to repatriate oil revenues to Iran’s central bank despite despite Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal, offering a vital lifeline for the Iranian economy as sanctions begin to bite.

After Trump’s Iran Decision: Time for Europe to Step Up

May 10

May 10 After Trump’s Iran Decision: Time for Europe to Step Up

Ellie Geranmayeh

◢ The E3 should now acknowledge that its negotiating tactic of accommodation and comprise with Trump has failed. If Europe is to have any influence forthcoming US policy on Iran, European governments should quickly shift tack, unifying behind a more assertive diplomatic strategy aimed at deterring the worst-case scenario of renewed Iranian nuclear program and more instability and violence in a region close to its borders.

Trump's Unequivocal Iran Deal Withdrawal Was the Best Outcome for Iran

May 9

May 9 Trump's Unequivocal Iran Deal Withdrawal Was the Best Outcome for Iran

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

◢ President Trump has violated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and withdrawn from a landmark arms control agreement that enjoyed broad international support. Crucially, he did so more decisively than many expected. It is this decisiveness which may offer a sliver lining for Iran and Europe, who will find it easier to coordinate a robust response in the face of such a definitive action by Trump.

Europe’s Balancing Act on the Nuclear Deal: Wooing Trump Without Losing Iran

May 4

May 4 Europe’s Balancing Act on the Nuclear Deal: Wooing Trump Without Losing Iran

Ellie Geranmayeh

◢ European leaders have been assiduous in lobbying Washington on the nuclear deal. But Europe must step up its diplomacy to ensure it does not lose Tehran in the process and should further make a strong case to the Iranian government and public as to why the nuclear deal can continue to serve Iran’s security and economic interest even without the US.

As the Iran Deal Approaches its D-Day, Uncertainty Only Set to Increase

Apr 27

Apr 27 As the Iran Deal Approaches its D-Day, Uncertainty Only Set to Increase

◢ With the United States looking set to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, the question now becomes how that withdrawal will take place. The European Union and Iran will face complex decisions about legal and diplomatic responses. Even though U.S. policy will be come more clear in the aftermath of May 12, the overall uncertainty facing businesses is likely set to increase.

Macron and Merkel Must Flex Muscles to Save Iran Nuclear Deal

Apr 24

Apr 24 Macron and Merkel Must Flex Muscles to Save Iran Nuclear Deal

◢ The forthcoming visits to Washington by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel come at a time of great importance for the Iran nuclear deal, regional security, and transatlantic relations. European policymakers are considering credible ways to signal that the EU is willing to take action if confronted with U.S. withdrawal from the deal, but a significant resolve will be needed.

In Confirmation Hearing, Pompeo Unwittingly Makes Strong Case for the Iran Nuclear Deal

Apr 13

Apr 13 In Confirmation Hearing, Pompeo Unwittingly Makes Strong Case for the Iran Nuclear Deal

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

◢ During confirmation hearings yesterday, Secretary of State nominee Mike Pompeo sought to ensure the members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee of his deep commitment to diplomacy, even in the case of Iran. But committee members were well-prepared, challenging Pompeo on his record of hawkish statements. To defend himself, Pompeo was forced to defend the JCPOA as he struggled to stick to the administration's illogical talking points.

Trump Stance on JCPOA Nuclear Deal Poses Legal Dilemmas for Iran

Apr 11

Apr 11 Trump Stance on JCPOA Nuclear Deal Poses Legal Dilemmas for Iran

Farshad Kashani

◢ With the May 12 deadline for the issuing of key sanctions waivers as part of the Iran nuclear deal fast approaching, the legal impact of the collapse of the 2015 agreement ought to be considered. Regardless of how Iran responds to a change in U.S. policy, the possible withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA will have a legal impact on its parties. Any possible change in the partnership or the provisions of the agreement will be reflected within the domain of international law.

The Iran Deal’s On Life Support: Time To Pull The Plug

Mar 30

Mar 30 The Iran Deal’s On Life Support: Time To Pull The Plug

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

◢ The JCPOA has become a liability for Iranian diplomacy. The "fix not nix" strategy has allowed the U.S. to sour the Europe-Iran relationship and focus nearly all diplomatic efforts on preserving the deal, rather than building new foundations for political and economic engagement. Iran ought to consider taking control by leaving the JCPOA as part of a strategy that keeps its key non-proliferation commitments intact.

Hold on Iran: Regime Change is Coming to Washington

Mar 26

Mar 26 Hold on Iran: Regime Change is Coming to Washington

◢ With the announcement March 22 that John Bolton will soon be joining Mike Pompeo in the Trump administration, US adherence to the Iran nuclear deal looks doomed.

◢ But officials in Tehran who may be arguing that Iran should also quit the JCPOA if the US does, should remain patient. The Trump administration is in trouble and the Republican majorities on which it depends in Congress are looking almost as endangered as the Iran nuclear deal.

The Iran Deal is Dead, Long Live the Iran Deal

Mar 24

Mar 24 The Iran Deal is Dead, Long Live the Iran Deal

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

◢ John Bolton's appointment as Trump's new national security advisor likely spells the end of the JCPOA as we know it. Bolton is a vocal opponent of the deal and seeks military confrontation with Iran.

◢ But while Trump may finally nix the Iran Deal, he will cannot impede the forces that brought it into existence. In the long run, Iran's geopolitical significance and need for engagement will outlast Trump and keep Iran at the table alongside reasonable actors in the international community.

Europe Should Strike a Tough Pose With Trump on the Iran Nuclear Deal

Mar 23

Mar 23 Europe Should Strike a Tough Pose With Trump on the Iran Nuclear Deal

Ellie Geranmayeh

◢ If Europe is serious about saving the nuclear deal, then the appointment of Pompeo, an Iran-hawk in Washington, should serve as an urgent prompt to rethink its current strategy.

◢ Europeans should be clear-eyed about the chances of success of current talks with the United States. Based on recent precedent, Trump is likely to perceive Europe’s flexibility and accommodation over Iran policy as a weakness that he can exploit to raise the benchmarks of demands.

Can Blocking Regulations Help Europe Protect Its Iran Business From Trump?

Feb 13

Feb 13 Can Blocking Regulations Help Europe Protect Its Iran Business From Trump?

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

◢ In the last week, European business leaders and policymakers have grown more vocal about the possibility that the European Union would employ blocking regulations to protect European businesses from the reach of US secondary sanctions on Iran.

◢ Despite limits to their legal effectiveness, blocking regulations can serve as part of the suite of political, legal, and commercial measures employed by European governments to protect their businesses in Iran.

In First Survey Since Iran Protests, Expressions of Solidarity as Economic Outlook Darkens

Feb 2

Feb 2 In First Survey Since Iran Protests, Expressions of Solidarity as Economic Outlook Darkens

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

◢ A timely new survey published by the University of Maryland’s Center for International and Security Studies (CISSM) offers the first insights into Iranian public sentiments following last month’s protests.

◢ The results underscore the central role that economic frustration played in the recent mobilizations and illuminate a common thread of economic frustration. A clear 58 percent of respondents believe that Iran's economic conditions are worsening, the highest proportion since May 2015.

Senior American Diplomat To Be Replaced With "Trump Loyalist" in Key Iran Role

Dec 11

Dec 11 Senior American Diplomat To Be Replaced With "Trump Loyalist" in Key Iran Role

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

◢ Chris Backemeyer, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Iranian Affairs at the U.S. Department of State, is set to be replaced by Andrew Peek, a political appointee described as a "Trump loyalist."

◢ Backemeyer had a decade of experience working on the Iran file. His replacement represents the most significant loss of expertise on Iran policy to date.

Rentierism and Rivalry Between Riyadh and Tehran

Nov 16

Nov 16 Rentierism and Rivalry Between Riyadh and Tehran

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

◢ Though widely described as move to consolidate political power, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman's decision to arrest members of the Saudi elite points to anxiety about Saudi Arabia's economic prospects and the risks of rentierism.

◢ The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran is driven by the fact that the Kingdom is increasingly economically vulnerable at a time when Iran's fortunes are set to improve.

Killing Iran’s Economy Won’t Help the U.S.

Oct 30

Oct 30 Killing Iran’s Economy Won’t Help the U.S.

◢ The Trump administration's new Iran policy focuses largely on targeting the IRGC in the name of American national security. But IRGC will not stop its expansionism in the Middle East because of sanctions and sanctions will not weaken the Iranian government at home.

◢ If the Trump administration continues to harm Iran's economy, the biggest losers will be the Iranian people, caught between punitive U.S. policies and an illiberal regime.