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◢ A free trade agreement between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) will come into force on October 27, enabling preferential trade between Iran and a trading bloc comprised of 183 million people. But a leading research body has cautioned that the “low level of Iran’s commercial complimentary” with the EEAU market will temper prospects in the short term.
◢ Three new waves of nationally-representative surveys conducted by the University of Maryland paint a damning picture of the Trump administrations policy towards Iran. Negative perceptions of the United States among the Iranian public are at their highest level recorded in a decade of public opinion research.
◢ Since the year 2000, Iran has about doubled its annual imports of pharmaceutical products from the European Union, reflecting both advances in Iranian healthcare and the growth in Europe-Iran trade ties. But a distortion in the value of trade relative to quantity means that Iran is paying significantly more than the likes of Russia, Turkey, and Pakistan for each kilogram of medication.
◢ The prepared remarks of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani delivered at the United Nations General Assembly on September 25, 2019. They are published here in full in the interest of providing fuller insight into Iran’s intended message on the potential for diplomacy with the United States.
◢ New data indicate that, while Donald Trump’s policy of “maximum pressure” has reduced Iranian oil exports to near zero and seriously hurt Iran’s economy, it has not caused anything resembling economic collapse. Furthermore, these data suggest that the economy is not in a steep decline, one that would anytime soon force Iran to capitulate.
◢ A recent report from the London-based publication Petroleum Economist offers a cautionary tale of “fake news.” The claim that China will extend a $400 billion credit line to Iran is poorly sourced and inconsistent with both recent trends in China-Iran trade and the scope of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
◢ A new report in the Daily Beast claims that Trump is flirting with a “$15 billion bailout for Iran.” But the mechanics of the proposal Trump is considering, put forward by French President Emmanuel Macron, are far more limited and reasonable than this and other reports have suggested.
◢ John Bolton doggedly pursued maximum pressure, pushing aside the concerns expressed the secretary of state, secretary of treasury, military leaders and intelligence officials alike. While Trump’s antagonism towards the Iran nuclear deal predates his appointment of Bolton, the transformation of the Trump administration’s Iran policy into one of “economic war” was nonetheless dependent on Bolton’s ideological fixations.
◢ Trump may have exempted Iran’s Chabahar port from sanctions, but India has struggled to realize its ambitions for the major infrastructure project. Recent government data confirms that no Indian investment has been made in the port in two years. As one Indian official involved with the project since its origins put it, “This was not what we hoped to achieve. Chabahar is only about photo-ops now, not substance.”
◢ Give US and European officials a simple quiz about the Iranian economy and they will fail to answer fundamental questions. A poor understanding of Iran’s economy is the single most significant gap in our perception of Iran and the nature of the conflict in which it is currently mired.
◢ Despite sharp criticism from the private sector, the Rouhani administration has delayed a key reform to Iran’s currency policy, frustrating the country’s beleaguered business leaders. In late June, government spokesman Ali Rabiei stated definitively that the administration has no plans to eliminate the subsidized foreign exchange rate made available to importers of essential goods.
◢ Last year, the Swiss government opened negotiations with the Trump administration to ensure that Switzerland’s significant sales of pharmaceutical products and medical devices—technically exempt from U.S. sanctions—could continue unimpeded. But the National Security Council has so far prevented the Swiss effort to ease trade in food and medicine in a remarkable subversion of longstanding U.S. protections for humanitarian trade with Iran.
◢ The state-owned company at the center of European efforts to save the Iran nuclear deal is entering its next phase of development. In a push to process transactions more quickly, INSTEX is rolling out a new factoring service for European exporters. The company is also making new hires that will enable it to expand operations more quickly in the coming year.
◢ Over the last 18 months, the Iranian rial has lost nearly 70 percent of its value, hammered by the Trump administration’s decision to reimpose secondary sanctions on Iran in violation of the JCPOA. But new interventions by the Central Bank of Iran appear to have helped stabilize the currency, leading some commentators to proclaim that the rial is no longer vulnerable to Trump’s maximum pressure campaign.
◢ The Trump administration has imposed successive rounds of economic sanctions targeting nearly all productive sectors of Iran’s economy. But a new wave of restrictive measures now under consideration would have the practical effect of totally severing Iran’s economy from Europe, critically undermining humanitarian trade with Iran.
◢ Josep Borrell, the current foreign minister of Spain, is a worthy nominee to replace Federica Mogherini as the EU’s top diplomat. His views on Iran suggest continuity with Mogherini’s pro-engagement policy and willingness to push back on the Trump administration’s unilateralism. But as the crisis over the JCPOA accelerates, the situation Borrell will inherit in a few months may prevent him from keeping the EU engaged in constructive dialogue with Iran.
◢ China has taken its second Iranian cargo of crude oil after US waivers expired in early May, further defying US sanctions on Iran’s oil exports. The HORSE, a VLCC owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) discharged its oil at Tianjin port in northern China, data provided by market intelligence firm Kpler shows.
◢ According to analysis provided by TankerTrackers.com, a tanker owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) has delivered oil to the Jinxi Refining and Chemical Complex in China, marking the first confirmed delivery of Iranian crude purchased after the Trump administration’s revocation of waivers permitting the sale of Iranian oil on May 2.
◢ To help alleviate the strain of rising house prices, the Rouhani administration announced earlier this month that it would begin implementation of its long-awaited social housing construction campaign intended to increase the availability of affordable homes for low-income families. The National Action Plan for Production and Supply of Housing aims to construct 400,000 small and medium-size apartments.
