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The appointment of Ali Salehabadi as Iran’s new central bank governor reflects the generational shift underway in Iranian policymaking—he was born just one year before the revolution that led to the establishment of the Islamic Republic.
A new report from the Majlis Research Center offers the first assessment of what “verified” sanctions relief might look like, providing a glimpse into how negotiators will take forward a key demand set out by Iran’s Supreme Leader.
Although Iran’s accession to the SCO—which may take up to two years to complete—appears significant, the move is unlikely to substantially change Iran’s geopolitical position.
Raisi’s new cabinet is composed of men he has praised as “expert, efficient and revolutionary.” The question is to what extent the cabinet can implement the resistance economy model given its inherent limitations.
The Rouhani administration’s efforts to foster regional diplomacy were never taken seriously by Arab leaders. But the participation of Iran in the Baghdad Conference makes clear that the importance of regional diplomacy is understood even among Iran’s so-called hardliners.
The Raisi administration must ensure that Iran’s foreign policy serves to minimise external challenges, so that the capacity of the government can be focused on the domestic crises where the needs are most acute.
The Raisi administration is set to change the tone of Iranian diplomacy, but not the overall trajectory of the country’s foreign policy, which will need to remain pragmatic.
Iran’s economic stagnation and widening inequality are top concerns for Iranian voters. It is therefore no surprise that during the three televised debates, candidates ganged up on Abdolnasser Hemmati, until recently Iran’s central bank governor.
A new IMF estimate has led to claims that Iran’s gross international reserves have been “wiped out.” But a closer look at the data makes clear that this is far from the case.
Trump tied American jobs to endless wars in the Middle East. Biden should link them to renewed diplomacy.
Unwinding sanctions will be central to reviving the nuclear deal. If the Biden administration wants a lasting solution, it must involve Iran’s central bank governor.
The Arab moment has passed. Competition between non-Arab powers—Turkey, Iran, and Israel—will shape the region’s future.
An enduring hawkishness shapes France-Iran relations and the French leadership may discourage Biden from making conciliatory gestures towards Iran.
Earlier this week, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, the foreign minister of Qatar, travelled to Tehran in the latest instance of Doha's efforts to act as a facilitator for the resolution of international conflicts.
Maintaining maximum pressure to inflict more pain won’t bring Tehran back to the negotiating table or halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Iran’s Supreme Leader has insisted that the US must lift sanctions “in practice” and not “on paper,” noting that Iran would seek to “verify” any sanctions relief as part of US re-entry into the nuclear deal. But unlike Iran’s own nuclear commitments, which are verified by the IAEA, there is no such body to ensure sanctions relief is being implemented.
Turkmenistan has long struggled to sell its enormous natural gas reserves to a diverse range of customers. With the country’s natural gas surplus expected to rise even higher in the coming years, increasing exports to Iran may be the best solution.
Iran’s oil exports are rising and the sector is growing for the first time in two years. The recovery poses a dilemma for Biden, who faces a growing constituency in Tehran unsure if there's enough to be gained should the US be allowed to rejoin the JCPOA.
Iran will expect economic benefits as part of any mutual return to compliance with the nuclear deal. If Washington and Europe hope to offer a meaningful economic incentive, engaging with the private sector and managing Tehran’s expectations will be key.
Insisting that Iran must abandon its missile program could see Joe Biden fall into the hardliners’ trap and make a new agreement impossible.
