Iran PMI Report - Mehr 1401 (September 23 - October 22)
Iran’s economy continued to grow in the Iranian calendar month of Mehr (September 23 – October 22), but growth slowed as new orders fell sharply following several weeks of national protests.
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New purchasing managers’ index data from the Iran Chamber of Commerce indicates that whole economy PMI fell to 50.19, down from 52.08 in the previous month. The slowdown in economic activity reflected a small drop in output. The whole economy sub-index for output was 51.60, down 0.74 points from the previous month. But the real impact on Iran’s economy came from the fall in new orders. The whole economy sub-index for new orders fell just over 6 points to 46.82.
Meanwhile, the sub-index for sales fell to 42.65, the lowest rate in 14 months. In it’s PMI report, the Iran Chamber of Commerce attributed to slowdown to the sharp drop in demand for goods and services and blamed the continued pressure on household purchasing power as well as “recent developments,” which refer to the ongoing protests triggered by the killing of Mahsa Amini.
The government has responded to the protests by curtailing interest access, which has also hurt sales activity in Iran’s large e-commerce sector.
Similar dynamics were observed in Iran’s manufacturing sector. Manufacturing PMI was 51.66, down 1.59 points from the previous month. Manufacturing output actually rose, indicating that planned strikes and other forms of labour protests have yet to impact production at Iranian factories. But new orders slowed significantly, with the relevant sub-index falling to 45.08, down 5.68 points from the previous month.
Business managers in the manufacturing sector appear to believe that the disruptions will be temporary—the sub-index for expectation of economic activity in the coming month was 60.39, well above the threshold of 50 that would indicate an expectation of contraction in the sector. Even so, business confidence appears shaken as the long-running pressures related to high producer prices are compounded by softening demand.
Whole Economy PMI
Manufacturing PMI
Photo: Abed Mirmasoumi
