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All tagged oil
The Russian war against Ukraine has been both a gift and a curse for oil producers in the Persian Gulf. It has stoked oil demand, but also made clear the strategic necessity of the energy transition.
European Union leaders have agreed on a landmark embargo of Russian oil that will seek to slash imports by 90 percent by the end of the year. That is bad news for Iran.
The contents of an email shared with Bourse & Bazaar by an official at Iran’s communications ministry suggest that China’s Bank of Kunlun is weighing whether to cease processing Iran-related payments. There is growing concern in Tehran that China may be planning to downgrade its trade relationship with Iran.
◢ New data from China’s customs administration show a significant drop in purchases of Iranian oil. The declared value of September imports was just USD 254 million, down 34 percent from August and down 80 percent from the same month last year. But observed exports from Iran remain high, suggesting that the customs data is not capturing the full value of Iranian oil sales to China.
◢ A new report in the Daily Beast claims that Trump is flirting with a “$15 billion bailout for Iran.” But the mechanics of the proposal Trump is considering, put forward by French President Emmanuel Macron, are far more limited and reasonable than this and other reports have suggested.
◢ China has taken its second Iranian cargo of crude oil after US waivers expired in early May, further defying US sanctions on Iran’s oil exports. The HORSE, a VLCC owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) discharged its oil at Tianjin port in northern China, data provided by market intelligence firm Kpler shows.
◢ According to analysis provided by TankerTrackers.com, a tanker owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) has delivered oil to the Jinxi Refining and Chemical Complex in China, marking the first confirmed delivery of Iranian crude purchased after the Trump administration’s revocation of waivers permitting the sale of Iranian oil on May 2.
◢ On the same day that Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif traveled to Beijing for talks on "regional and international issues,” the Chinese oil tanker PACIFIC BRAVO began to head east, having loaded approximately 2 million barrels of Iranian oil from the Soroosh and Kharg terminals in the Persian Gulf over the past few days, according to analysis provided by TankerTrackers.com.
◢ The deadline for the US administration to decide whether to extend sanctions waivers granted to buyers of Iranian oil is now less than a month away, and President Donald Trump faces a tricky decision. He undoubtedly wants to increase pressure on the Persian Gulf nation, but in doing so he risks stoking oil prices and with them those all-important gas prices in swing states back home.
◢ Aiming to achieve self-sufficiency in the production of gasoline, Iran recently launched the third phase of the Persian Gulf Star Refinery, after a massive investment of USD 4 billion. But given rising consumption, the future of genuine gasoline self-sufficiency in Iran might be less bright than the new developments at the Persian Gulf Star suggest.
◢ Iran’s oil exports are likely to remain limited in 2019, with significant negative impact on Iran’s economy. Last month, the Trump administration reimposed sanctions on Iran’s energy sector as part of its ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against. But it nevertheless sought to prevent an unhelpful spike in oil prices ahead of the midterm elections. As a result the United States issued eight waivers to importers of Iranian oil:.
◢ China has halted its financial transactions with Iran as part of an unexpected gamble on the future of its trading relationship with the Islamic Republic. According to Majid Reza Hariri, deputy president of the Iran-China Chamber of Commerce, China is hoping to sustain its trade with Iran without putting its financial system in the crosshairs of US authorities by joining the special purpose vehicle being devised by Europe for this purpose.
◢ Iran is resorting to “Houdini tricks” to sustain oil exports as US sanctions loom and new data suggests the magic might be working. While S&P Global Platts has reported Iran’s September exports at about 1.7 million bpd, marking an 11 percent decline from August, data from TankerTrackers.com, puts the export volume at just over 2 million bpd. The divergence in the datasets represents not merely 300,000 bpd, but also the difference between two narratives about the state of Iran’s exports in the face of returning US sanctions.
◢ In the coming weeks, the US administration will intensify its economic pressure on Iran through sanctions designed to curtail the country’s oil exports. Given that these exports account for a significant percentage of state revenue, the measures will hit Iran hard. Yet the sanctions will also have an impact on energy markets far beyond Iran, and may lead to a rise in global oil prices.
◢ Negotiations on the international legal status of the Caspian Sea, which started in 1996, appear to have at last reached the finish line. After 22 years, the five countries around the sea have come close to signing a convention on its legal status. If they do, it seems that the agreement will allow to pave the way for the construction of the underwater the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline and other projects and will also close the access to the sea for the armed force of third countries.
◢ The Iran nuclear agreement marked its third anniversary in a gloomy state. Many hoped that the resolution of the nuclear dispute would result in a new understanding between the West and Iran, opening a pathway for detente rather than confrontation. Relations between Europe and Iran have certainly made gains in this direction, but the Trump administration’s maximalist stance on Tehran has created an extremely hazardous environment for all remaining stakeholders in the nuclear deal.
◢ The president’s recent statement that OPEC may have something to do with the president’s own decision to create a crisis with Iran. While attention is duly paid to how much Americans have to pay at the pump, a more subtle and complicated story will soon play out with respect to Iran and the reapplication of US sanctions ordered by Trump on May 8, 2018. In fact, unless oil prices are contained, the primary result of the president’s action may be to ensure that Iran profits from the oil market risks that sanctions have created.
◢ As the US chooses the "nuclear option" on Iran's oil, Europe must find leverage and force the US to walk back on its announced policy of driving down Iranian oil exports to zero. The negative consequences for European economy could prove significant, and the risks of regional escalation are high. There are three measures that the EU can pursue to pressure Trump and prevent a dangerous escalation.
◢ Speaking on Thursday at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington D.C. think tank, Total CEO Patrick Pouyanné faced several questions about his company’s recently announced decision to wind down operations in Iran following the reapplication of secondary sanctions by the Trump administration. Pouyanné warned that the “Atlantic allies” risk giving “all the Middle East region to China and Russia.”
◢ The last Iranian year, which ended in March, saw several interesting developments for Iranian energy, both domestically and internationally. Despite persistent challenges, Iran is keen to build on the momentum of last year’s developments. In doing so, the question of whether the Trump administration will stay in the JCPOA and renew sanctions waivers on May 12 will have great importance.
