Concern in Iran Over China Commerce as Trump Gets Trade Deal
Last week, an official from Iran’s communications ministry received an email from a Chinese supplier informing them that Bank of Kunlun, the state-owned bank at the heart of China-Iran bilateral trade, is weighing whether to cease processing Iran-related payments.
The email warned that after an April 9 deadline, “Kunlun may stop handling payment [sic] from Iran. For the exact situation then, we can only wait for further notice from the bank.”
The bank was set to inform clients that “all the payment [sic] should be received and goods should be shipped before April 9, and all PI (pro forma invoice) dates should be before January 10.”
The official, who shared the contents of the email with Bourse & Bazaar on condition of anonymity, speculated that the change in policy at Bank of Kunlun could be related to the recent agreement reached between Chinese and American negotiators over the first phase of a new trade deal.
If the email proves accurate, this would not be the first time that Kunlun has suddenly changed its policy in response to political developments in Washington. The bank paused its Iran business for one-month period following the Trump administration’s reimposition of secondary sanctions on Iran in November 2018. When Iran transactions were resumed, a new policy limited payments for trade in “humanitarian and non-sanctioned goods and services between Iran and China,” minimizing direct contravention of U.S. sanctions.
Reached for comment, Wu Peimin, the economic counselor at the Chinese embassy in Tehran, stated the embassy had not been made aware of any impending change in policy at Kunlun and that concerns amount to a “hypothetical situation.”
As analysts Julia Gurol and Jacopo Scita detail in a recent report, China’s has continued to purchase Iranian oil in defiance of U.S. sanctions in an “attempt to appease Iran and avoid a full-scale conflict in the Persian Gulf.” Although China has rebalanced its imports in favor of Saudi Arabia and could easily find an alternative supplier for the low volumes of oil still imported from Iran, recent incidents such as the attack on the Aramco facilities in Abqaiq and Khurais have made clear the risks to Chinese energy security if Iran acts on threats to prevent all exports through the Strait of Hormuz in the event it is prevented from exporting its oil.
But while China’s strategic interests are well-served by maintaining trade ties with Iran, albeit at reduced levels, there remains the possibility that China may have made tactical concessions related to Iran as part of its trade negotiations with the United States. For their side, U.S. officials have insisted that they would not reduce sanctions pressure on Chinese firms trading with Iran in order to gain concessions from Beijing related to the trade deal.
Chinese trade with Iran has fallen due to sanctions pressures, but remains a pillar of Iran’s economic resiliency in the face of the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign. Iran’s bilateral trade with China totaled USD 23 billion last year. While the annual total has fallen 34.5 percent, Iran has sustained significant oil and non-oil exports to China, totaling just over USD 13.2 billion dollars. The earnings from this trade have enabled Iran to afford continued imports of Chinese raw materials, parts, and machinery that support Iran’s manufacturing sector—total imports were USD 9.7 billion in 2019.
Much of this trade was facilitated through the payment channels available at Kunlun, a so-called “bad bank” sanctioned by the United States in 2012 for its critical role in supporting Chinese trade with Iran, particularly oil purchases by major state refiners like CNPC and Sinopec.
Mohammad Reza Karbasi, who is responsible for international affairs at the Iran Chamber of Commerce, expressed confidence that even if Kunlun proceeds to eliminate its Iran business, other smaller Chinese banks will step-in to support the longstanding bilateral trade between China and Iran.
“Iran is important to China and the same is true the other way round as well. Sure, there are attempts by Western governments to try and interfere with the expansion of ties between us, but we believe the Chinese won’t let them succeed given the trust that has been built between our two counties through years of cooperation,” Karbasi said.
In a recent interview focused on the trade deal, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated that the Trump administration was “working closely with [China] to make sure that they cease all additional activities [with Iran]." The Trump administration has continued to sanction Chinese firms engaged in Iran trade, most recently targeting several buyers of Iranian oil.
Mnuchin also stated that “China state companies are not buying oil from Iran.” The statement remains factually incorrect—Chinese firms such as CNPC remain directly engaged in Iran oil purchases—but it may refer to a new understanding between China and the United States that is yet to be implemented.
Richard Nephew, who led sanctions policy at the State Department during the Obama administration, recently told S&P Platts that he does not expect such designations and the related pressure to compel China to drop it’s Iran trade outright.
However, reports that Iran’s January oil exports are significantly higher than the monthly average since May 2019 may reflect stockpiling of cheap Iranian oil by Chinese refiners ahead of an expected change in policy and reduction in imports. A similar pattern was observed when exports peaked in March 2019 ahead of the May 2019 revocation of the waiver permitting Chinese purchases of Iranian oil.
Given the timing, concerns in Tehran center on whether China will further downgrade its trade with Iran in order to avoid jeopardizing its new understanding with the Trump administration on larger issues of economic policy.
Massoud Maleki, the director of the Bureau for Developing Countries at the Tehran Chamber of Commerce said he was skeptical of reports Kunlun would bring an end to its Iran business, but warned of the consequences if there were such disruptions.
“Iran and China’s trade is not a paltry amount for it to be carried out through suitcase trade or exchange bureaus. If this is true, then I’m afraid that we will have to deal with a whole lot of hardship. This, I presume, is unlikely, but if it’s confirmed we must prepare and take necessary measures,” said Maleki.
Farhad Ehteshamzad, an Iranian industrialist and former head of Iran Auto Importers Association, echoed the call for preparations in case the U.S.-China trade deal has changed China’s intentions regarding trade with Iran.
“Transactions through the Bank of Kunlun had already been made difficult during the past two or three months. Kunlun in China was like one of our small credit institutions in Iran before being trusted with the responsibility to handle Iran payments. It gets all its reputation via collaboration with Iranian businesses.’
He added that if the industry ministry official had received such an email, the Central Bank of Iran has also been forewarned and urged officials to ensure that the Iranian funds currently held in accounts at Kunlun are not blocked.
“An emergency meeting should be held to determine how much capital lies in the bank and to inform traders and economic players before their money gets blocked. Also, if there is the possibility for certain goods to be shipped before April 9, this has to be done. If there isn’t, then money has to be transferred from Kunlun bank to other banks as quickly as possible before the money is out of reach.”
Ehteshamzad estimates that around 80 percent of payments made to support China-Iran bilateral trade are currently processed via Kunlun. “Yet, this does not mean if the bank stops its services, trade will come to a halt,” he insisted.
Citing the creativity and resolve of Iran’s private sector, Ehteshamzad noted that Iranian business boast “a myriad ways to circumnavigate the U.S. sanctions. The only downside to this is that transaction costs will rise, meaning goods will take longer to be delivered and will cost more.”
For now, Iran’s business community is waiting nervously to see whether decisions made in Washington and Beijing will force them to put their creative powers to use once again.
Photo: U.S. Embassy Beijing
